Translation guide
In Japanese, expressing 'guessing' depends on certainty, evidence, and formality. Common strategies include using 〜だろう/でしょう for conjecture, 〜かもしれない for possibility, 〜と思う for personal opinion, and 〜はず for expectation based on reasoning.
The speaker makes a guess about something, often without strong evidence. This is the most common way to say 'I guess' or 'probably'.
Plain form conjecture, used in casual speech and writing. Attaches to the plain form of verbs, adjectives, and nouns. Often translated as 'probably' or 'I guess'.
Polite form of 〜だろう. Used in formal speech and writing. Slightly softer than 〜だろう.
明日は雨でしょう。
It will probably rain tomorrow.
彼は来ないでしょう。
He probably won't come.
Literally 'I think that...'. Used to express personal guess or opinion. Less assertive than 〜だろう/でしょう. Often used with 多分 (たぶん, probably).
多分、彼は来ると思う。
I think he'll probably come.
それは本当だと思う。
I think that's true.
Expresses possibility, 'might' or 'may'. Weaker certainty than 〜だろう. Can be shortened to 〜かも in casual speech.
彼は来るかもしれない。
He might come.
雨が降るかも。
It might rain.
Expresses a feeling or hunch, 'I have a feeling that...'. Softer and more intuitive than 〜と思う.
何か忘れた気がする。
I have a feeling I forgot something.
The speaker makes a logical inference or expects something based on information. Equivalent to 'should' or 'ought to'.
Indicates expectation based on reasoning, 'should' or 'ought to'. The speaker is fairly certain. Negative form is 〜はずがない (cannot be).
彼はもう着いたはずだ。
He should have arrived by now.
そんなはずがない。
That can't be true.
Strong conviction, 'must be' or 'no doubt'. More emphatic than 〜はずだ. Often used when the speaker is convinced.
彼は嘘をついているに違いない。
He must be lying.
Expresses conjecture based on sensory evidence or observation, 'it seems' or 'it looks like'. Similar to 〜みたいだ but more formal.
誰か来たようだ。
It seems someone has come.
Casual equivalent of 〜ようだ. Used in spoken Japanese for 'it seems like' or 'it looks like'.
雨が降ったみたいだ。
It looks like it rained.
Asking for someone's guess or opinion, or making a tentative suggestion.
Casual sentence-ending particle expressing wonder or asking oneself. Often used when thinking aloud or seeking confirmation. 'I wonder...'
Feminine equivalent of 〜かな. Used mostly by women in casual speech. 'I wonder...'
これでいいかしら。
I wonder if this is okay.
Polite way to ask for a guess or confirmation. Often used in formal settings or customer service.
明日は晴れるでしょうか。
Do you think it will be sunny tomorrow?
The speaker gives an approximate number or amount, or makes a rough calculation.
Noun meaning 'guess', 'conjecture', or 'speculation'. Often used in formal contexts. Verb form: 推測する.
それは単なる推測だ。
That's just a guess.
To make an educated guess or estimate. Literally 'to attach an aim'.
費用の見当をつけてください。
Please give me a rough estimate of the cost.
〜だろう expresses a guess with moderate certainty (probably). 〜かもしれない expresses possibility (might). 〜はず expresses expectation based on logic (should). Choose based on how sure you are and the basis for your guess.
彼は来るだろう。
He'll probably come. (guess)
彼は来るかもしれない。
He might come. (possibility)
彼は来るはずだ。
He should come. (expectation)
English 'I guess' often softens a statement or shows reluctance. In Japanese, using 〜だろう or 〜と思う can sound too direct if overused. Sometimes it's better to use softer expressions like 〜かな or 〜気がする, or simply omit the guessing phrase and use a rising intonation.
そうかな。
I guess so. (with uncertainty)
A wild guess, shot in the dark. Implies guessing without any basis.
当てずっぽうで答えた。
I answered with a wild guess.