Translation guide
The English word 'conjecture' refers to an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information. In Japanese, expressing this concept depends on the level of certainty, formality, and whether it's a personal guess, a logical inference, or a formal hypothesis.
Expressing a personal, informal guess or speculation based on limited evidence.
The most common way to express a personal conjecture. It literally means 'I think that...' and is used for subjective opinions or guesses.
I conjecture that he has already gone home.
A casual conjecture marker, similar to 'probably' or 'I guess'. Often used in spoken Japanese.
It will probably rain tomorrow (I conjecture).
Expresses a possibility or conjecture with less certainty, similar to 'might' or 'maybe'.
He might be sick (I conjecture).
A noun meaning 'guess' or 'conjecture'. Often used in phrases like 推測する (to conjecture). More formal than と思う.
That's mere conjecture.
Expressing a conjecture based on logical reasoning or evidence, often in formal or academic contexts.
Refers to inference or reasoning. Used for logical conjectures, especially in academic or scientific contexts.
That conjecture (inference) is correct.
Conjecture or speculation, often with a nuance of being groundless or based on imagination. Can be negative.
Indicates a strong conjecture based on logical expectation, similar to 'should' or 'ought to'.
He should have arrived by now (I conjecture).
Expressing a formal conjecture, hypothesis, or supposition in academic, scientific, or literary contexts.
Hypothesis. Used in scientific or academic contexts for a conjecture that is to be tested.
That conjecture (hypothesis) has not yet been proven.
Assumption or supposition. Often used when setting up a scenario or premise.
A literary or formal term for conjecture or speculation, often implying it is unfounded.
推測 (すいそく) is a neutral guess based on some evidence. 憶測 (おくそく) often implies a groundless or fanciful conjecture. 推論 (すいろん) is a logical inference or deduction, more formal and systematic.
Directly translating 'conjecture' as a noun into Japanese can sound unnatural in casual speech. Use verb patterns like 〜と思う or 〜だろう for everyday guesses.
それは単なる憶測に過ぎない。
That's nothing more than conjecture.
最悪の事態を想定する。
To conjecture the worst-case scenario.
That is mere conjecture.