かもしれない・
Choosing between possibility and risk
Start by asking whether you are simply leaving a possibility open or deliberately presenting a danger. Use かもしれない for ordinary uncertainty and 得る for analytical statements about what can happen in principle. For a bad outcome, かねない sounds like the speaker's warning or criticism, while おそれがある presents an assessed risk in formal, often official language.
Two decisions matter
Likelihood alone does not choose the form. First decide whether the possible outcome is neutral or being framed as harmful. Then choose a viewpoint: an uncertain situation in ordinary life, a general possibility examined analytically, your own serious warning, or an impersonal risk assessment. The same event can be described differently when the setting and purpose change.
A quick choice map
Choose according to what you are doing with the possibility, not according to a fixed probability scale.
Leave an everyday possibility open
かもしれない
You are uncertain about a particular fact, event, or plan. The outcome may be good, bad, or neutral.
It does not express one fixed numerical degree of probability.
Judge what is possible in principle
verb stem + 得る・得ない
You are analyzing whether an event, outcome, explanation, or development can occur.
This concerns the possibility of an event, not a person's learned ability.
Give a serious warning
verb stem + かねない
You want to warn that a concerning result or objectionable action may occur.
With a person as the subject, it can sound distinctly critical or accusatory.
Report an assessed risk
おそれがある
A notice, report, advisory, or careful briefing identifies a harmful or institutionally problematic outcome.
It is usually too formal and weighty for minor personal uncertainty.
One event, three stances
A computer operation may erase stored data.
この操作でデータが消えるかもしれない。
This operation might erase the data.
AnalyzeThis simply leaves the bad outcome open as a possibility.
この操作は保存済みのデータを消しかねない。
This operation could erase data that has already been saved.
AnalyzeThe speaker presents the consequence as a serious reason for caution.
この操作により、保存データが消失するおそれがあります。
This operation may result in the loss of saved data.
AnalyzeThis sounds appropriate in a manual, service notice, or formal advisory.
Takeaway: All three sentences describe a possible bad result. The difference is whether it is merely uncertain, presented as the speaker's warning, or reported as an official-style risk.
A specific uncertainty or a general possibility?
かもしれない is natural when you are unsure about one concrete situation. 得る steps back and judges whether a kind of event or result is possible in principle. Productive combinations with the latter are especially common in reports, essays, and analytical discussion.
Two ways to frame danger
かねない readily communicates the speaker's judgment: a current action, attitude, or trend gives reason to warn about a bad result. おそれがある makes the assessment sound more impersonal. It is particularly at home in safety notices, public information, administrative writing, news, and formal operational reports.
Register at a glance
Swipe sideways to compare every column.
| Form | Typical purpose | Natural settings |
|---|---|---|
| かもしれない | Ordinary uncertainty about a specific situation | Conversation and general writing |
| 得る・得ない | Analytical possibility or impossibility | Reports, essays, formal explanations, and careful discussion |
| かねない | A warning or critical judgment about a bad consequence | Serious conversation, commentary, warnings, and news-like prose |
| おそれがある | A formal, impersonal assessment of risk | Official notices, safety information, news, and reports |
A common exception to the formal flavor of newly created combinations with 得る is あり得ない, which is frequent in ordinary conversation.
More examples across the family
来週は予定が変わるかもしれない。
The schedule may change next week.
Analyze彼はまだ連絡を見ていないかもしれません。
He may not have seen the message yet.
Analyzeこの変更は利用者全体に影響を与え得る。
This change could affect all users.
Analyze現在の資料だけでは原因を特定し得ない。
The cause cannot be identified from the current materials alone.
Analyze曖昧な表現は重大な誤解を招きかねない。
Ambiguous wording could cause a serious misunderstanding.
Analyze根拠のない噂は会社の信用を損ないかねない。
An unfounded rumor could damage the company's credibility.
Analyze大雪で配送が遅れるおそれがあります。
Heavy snow may delay deliveries.
Analyze機器の発熱による故障のおそれがあります。
There is a risk of equipment failure due to overheating.
Analyze